Louis H. Bean

Louis H. Bean
Louis H. Bean, c. 1943
Personal details
Born	(1896-04-15)April 15, 1896 Lithuania, Russian Empire
Died	August 5, 1994(1994-08-05) (aged 98) Arlington County, Virginia, US
Occupation	Economical and political analyst

Louis Hyman Bean (April 15, 1896 – August 5, 1994) was an American economic and political analyst, best known for predicting Harry S. Truman's victory in the 1948 presidential election.

Born in Lithuania, Russian Empire, he migrated with his family and settled in Laconia, New Hampshire. After receiving preliminary education and a Bachelor of Arts degree, he entered the Harvard Business School in Massachusetts and received his Master of Business Administration degree in 1922. In 1923, he became a member of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics at the United States Department of Agriculture. There, he worked on estimates of farm income and price indices. His charts were used when the McNary–Haugen Farm Relief Bill was being discussed in Congress. Bean was closely associated with Henry A. Wallace, and served as his economic advisor, and also worked on several of Wallace's books. He wrote articles for many academic journals, including The Review of Economics and Statistics.

During the late 1930s, Bean began developing an interest in political analysis. He accurately predicted the results of all presidential elections from 1936 to 1948. After his successful projection in the 1948 presidential election, Life magazine referred to him as the "Lone Prophet" of Truman's victory. He wrote articles for journals and books, including Ballot Behavior and How To Predict Elections. He continued making electoral analyses and projections in the 1950s and 1960s, most of which were accurate.

Early life and education

Louis Hyman Bean was born on April 15, 1896, in Lithuania, Russian Empire. In 1906, during the Russo-Japanese War, Bean and his family migrated to the United States and settled in Laconia, New Hampshire. There, his parents established a dry-fruit business. After receiving preliminary education through various schools in Laconia, he enrolled at the University of Rochester in New York. During World War I, he served in the Army as a Lieutenant and was discharged in 1919. Later that year, he was graduated a year ahead of his class with a Bachelor of Arts degree. After graduating, he worked as an assistant labor manager in the clothing industry. He entered the Harvard Business School in Massachusetts and received his Master of Business Administration degree in 1922. Bean married Dorothy May Wile in 1923. They had two children: Elizabeth and David.

Economic analyst

In 1923, Bean joined the newly formed Bureau of Agricultural Economics at the United States Department of Agriculture. According to author Theodore Rosenof, Bean's work in the Department of Agriculture was based on the use of statistical analysis as a basis for "policy formulation". As an economic analyst, Bean worked on estimates of farm income, price indices, and served as the secretary of the committee responsible for preparing the monthly price report of the department. He was closely associated with Henry A. Wallace, the son of secretary of agriculture Henry Cantwell Wallace, to whom Bean was also an advisor. Charts prepared by Bean were used when the McNary–Haugen Farm Relief Bill was being discussed in Congress. In 1933, Henry A. Wallace, then secretary of agriculture, appointed Bean as the economic advisor of the agricultural adjustment administration. He advised Wallace on various economic issues and also worked on several of Wallace's books. During World War II, he served on the Board of Economic Warfare as the Budget Bureau's chief fiscal analyst. Wallace later became the vice president under President Franklin D. Roosevelt. Bean continued to work for Wallace during his vice-presidency, and later during his tenure as the secretary of commerce till 1946. In 1947, he returned to the office of the secretary of agriculture and served until his retirement on June 30, 1953. He wrote articles like "Relation of Disposable Income and the Business Cycle to Expenditures", "Wholesale Prices and Industrial Stock Prices During and Immediately After the Two World Wars", and "Are Farmers Getting Too Much?" for the academic journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Political analyst

Democratic nominee Harry S. Truman (left) with the Republican nominee Thomas E. Dewey (right) at the dedication of the Idlewild Airport. Bean was the one of the only major pollster to predict Truman's victory in the 1948 presidential election.

According to Rosenof, Bean began developing an interest in political analysis during the late 1930s. He wrote: "Bean explained that he was captivated by a World Almanac compilation of state-by-state presidential election statistics since 1896 and discerned in them patterns that provoked further study. Secretary Wallace encouraged this initial spark. Bean practiced what he termed the 'art' of political analysis and forecasting, insisting that it was indeed an art and not a science." In the 1936 presidential election, when Republican Alf Landon challenged the incumbent President Roosevelt, contrary to most of the polls, which believed it to be a close race, Bean accurately projected Roosevelt to win in a landslide, carrying all the states except Maine, Vermont, and Pennsylvania. He did not dispute that the Republican Party's victory in the 1938 or 1942 congressional elections would help them in winning the 1940 or 1944 presidential elections. In 1940, he published a book titled Ballot Behavior. Claude E. Robinson of the Opinion Research Corporation wrote that "the Bean Formula", which provided rough check for the political analyst, should be a part of the working kit of students. During the 1948 presidential election, most of the polls (including the Gallup poll) projected the victory of Republican Thomas E. Dewey against incumbent President Harry S. Truman by a decisive margin. According to Bean, third-party candidate Henry A. Wallace drew northern votes from Democrats, which reduced their electorate. However, he noticed a rise in Truman's poll rating among farmers and workers during late 1947, and called it "quite striking". The same year, he published a book titled How To Predict Elections, which Spencer Albright of the University of Richmond called "even more valuable than the excellent Ballot Behavior". Howard Penniman of Yale University called Bean an imaginative and thoughtful election forecasters. In a letter on October 29, 1948, days before the election, Bean projected Truman's victory. On election day, Truman defeated Dewey, which Newsweek claimed as startling, astonishing, and "a major miracle". Life magazine referred to Bean as the "Lone Prophet" of Truman's victory. Alfred A. Knopf publishing company, which publicized Bean's book began advertising "Oh Mr. Gallup! Oh Mr. Roper! Obviously you don't know Bean's HOW TO PREDICT ELECTIONS." Rosenof wrote that "After 1948, the nation's political climate changed in such a way as to render Bean's analytic methodology less useful." In the 1952 presidential election, he refused to make a public projection, asserting that his method could not "encompass the newer ingredients". He leaned towards Democrat Adlai Stevenson against Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower, however, Eisenhower defeated Stevenson in a landslide. He was one of the few pollsters to accurately project the victory of the incumbent governor, Pat Brown, over former vice president Richard Nixon in the 1962 California gubernatorial election. He continued making electoral analyses and projections in the 1950s and 1960s, most of which were accurate.

Later life, legacy, and death

Later in his life, Bean kept writing for journals and wrote another book: The Art of Forecasting in 1970. Rosenof wrote that: "while the 1948 election signaled Bean's rise to prominence, it also marked the height of his influence." Economist Karl A. Fox mentioned Bean as one of the eight main economists in the first half of the twentieth century. He is best known for his prediction in the 1948 presidential election. However, pollster Elmo Roper later argued that in the book How To Predict Elections, Bean made no clear prediction. Bean's wife Dorothy died in 1991. Bean died on August 5, 1994, due to congestive heart failure at his home in Arlington County, Virginia.

See also

• Harry S. Truman 1948 presidential campaign

Works cited

• Albright, Spencer (1949). "How To Predict Elections by Louis H. Bean (Review)". Wiley. ISSN 0038-4941. JSTOR 42865202. 
• Bean, Louis H. (1946). "Relation of Disposable Income and the Business Cycle to Expenditures". MIT Press. pp. 199–207. Digital object identifier:10.2307/1925416. ISSN 0034-6535. JSTOR 1925416. 
• Bean, Louis H. (1947). "Wholesale Prices and Industrial Stock Prices During and Immediately After the Two World Wars". MIT Press. pp. 199–200. Digital object identifier:10.2307/1928631. ISSN 0034-6535. JSTOR 1928631. 
• Bean, Louis H. (1952). "Are Farmers Getting Too Much?". MIT Press. ISSN 0034-6535. JSTOR 1925633. 
• Bennett, G. Harry, ed (2004). Roosevelt's Peacetime Administrations, 1933–41: A Documentary History. Manchester University Press. ISBN 978-0-7190-6565-1. 
• Campbell, W. Joseph (2020). Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections. University of California Press. ISBN 978-0-520-97213-1. 
• Herberich, David H.; Levitt, Steven D.; List, John A. (2009). "Can Field Experiments Return Agricultural Economics to the Glory Days?". Oxford University Press. ISSN 0002-9092. JSTOR 20616292. 
• Hess, Jerry N. (1970). "Louis H. Bean Oral History Interview". Harry S. Truman Presidential Library & Museum. https://www.trumanlibrary.gov/library/oral-histories/beanlh. 
• Lemelin, Bernard (2001). "The U.S. Presidential Election of 1948 – The Causes of Truman's 'Astonishing' Victory". p. 38. Digital object identifier:10.3917/rfea.087.0038. ISSN 0397-7870. 
• McCullough, David (1992). Truman. Simon & Schuster. ISBN 978-0-671-86920-5. LCCN 92005245. OL1704072M. 
• Pace, Eric (August 8, 1994). "Louis H. Bean, 98, Analyst Best Known For 1948 Prediction". The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/1994/08/08/obituaries/louis-h-bean-98-analyst-best-known-for-1948-prediction.html. 
• Pearson, Richard (August 6, 1994). "Louis H. Bean Dies at 98". The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/1994/08/06/louis-h-bean-dies-at-98/1ae3e515-4ccc-47bf-a18a-bee616b0b375/. 
• Penniman, Howard (1949). "How to Predict Elections. by Louis H. Bean (Review)". University of Chicago Press. Digital object identifier:10.2307/2126512. ISSN 0022-3816. JSTOR 2126512. 
• Robinson, Claude (1941). "Ballot Behavior by Louis H. Bean (Review)". SAGE Publications. ISSN 0002-7162. JSTOR 1024200. 
• Rosenof, Theodore (1999). "The Legend of Louis Bean: Political Prophecy and the 1948 Election". Taylor & Francis. pp. 63–78. Digital object identifier:10.1111/j.1540-6563.1999.tb01434.x. ISSN 0018-2370. JSTOR 24450539. 
• Schapsmeier, Edward L.; Schapsmeier, Frederick H. (1968). Henry A. Wallace of Iowa: The Agrarian Years, 1910–1940. University of Iowa Press. ISBN 978-0-8138-1741-5. LCCN 68009690. OL5602903M. 
• Sitkoff, Harvard (1971). "Harry Truman and the Election of 1948: The Coming of Age of Civil Rights in American Politics". pp. 597–616. Digital object identifier:10.2307/2206548. ISSN 0022-4642. JSTOR 2206548. 
• Visser, Max (1994). "The Psychology of Voting Action: On the Psychological Origins of Electoral Research, 1939-1964". pp. 43–52. Digital object identifier:10.1002/1520-6696(199401)30:1<43::AID-JHBS2300300105>3.0.CO;2-D. ISSN 0022-5061. https://research.utwente.nl/en/publications/the-psychology-of-voting-action--on-the-psychological-origins-of-electoral-research-19391964(8b2b97b1-e083-4a43-a56d-2e7b4162f35f).html. 
• "Papers of Louis H. Bean, 1896–1994". Franklin D. Roosevelt Presidential Library and Museum. https://www.fdrlibrary.org/documents/356632/390886/findingaid_bean.pdf/d87d4763-baac-4de3-aa02-a0b49fb7eaa8.